Quantitative risk assessment Essay Example for Free

Quantitative risk assessment Essay Monte-Carlo simulation is carried out using a large number of computations, using a computer, with random inputs. This method is particularly useful when it comes to â€Å"predicting† the outcome a complex eventuality. Typically, the Monte-Carlo simulation is useful when predicting the outcome of a large number inter-related factors that are â€Å"uncertain†. Predictivity using Monte-Carlo simulation is far more accurate where variables under consideration are many, uncertain and random. For this particular reason, using Monte-Carlo simulation for this study is the best choice as there are many uncertain factors that need to be analyzed for computing a risk assessment. In this study, the first step begins with the production of meat and ends with health effects that meat can probably induce in consuming subjects. There is a large interplay of uncertain factors, and the entire food chain model proposed in the study has inherent variability across most levels. 2. What comment would you make about the source of data used for the concentration of E. coli in cattle feces? Prevalence and concentration of E. Coli in cattle fecal matter was used to assess the level of contamination of the meat. The level of contamination of the meat is a pointer to the probable exposure that a consuming subject could possibly have, to E. Coli. Concentration of E. Coli in cattle fecal matter is directly related to factors like seasonality, geographical properties, and feeding practices. However, the data related to concentration of E. Coli in the cattle fecal matter was constructed without consideration for these factors. Data used for concentration of E. Coli in fecal matter was obtained using enrichment methods. The results show a wide bipolar variation, from as low as undetectable E. Coli levels to as much as 5. 0 log10 CFU/g. The data for prevalence of E. Coli in cattle fecal matter was obtained from previously held studies. However, only data from those studies was used, that primarily aimed at detecting E. Coli prevalence rates in cattle fecal matter for beef that was supposedly slated for human consumption. 3. What comment would you make about the following: †¢ modeling the distribution of feces on carcass as Uniform? Slaughtering invariably causes the fecal matter to come in contact with the meat. Skinning a carcass will lead to contamination of exposed meat due to contact with the hide. Although, fecal matter is the main source of bacterial reservoir, the nature and number of agents that can directly or indirectly participate as contaminating agents is uncertain. However, the concentration of E. Coli in fecal matter is directly proportional to the extent of meat contamination. The distribution of fecal matter on carcass surface is uneven. A dilution factor was used as a model simplification. †¢ modeling fecal contamination only on the carcass surface? As a fact, E. Coli are present in the fecal matter but not inside red meat. Contamination of red meat, therefore, occurs only when fecal matter comes in contact with it. This will usually happen during slaughtering, and the following processes like packaging and trimming. For this reason fecal contamination has been modeled only on the carcass surface. 4. Briefly (less than 500 words), discuss the practicalities and likely success of implementing each of the proposed hypothetical mitigation strategies in the paper. The author has proposed three hypothetical risk mitigation strategies for risk reduction. However, the strategies have been proposed to reduce risk as per mentioned figures, assuming that the strategy is being implemented and the desired goal is being achieved. For instance, the first strategy of regulating storage temperature control norms shows a reduced risk to over 80%. Practically, this strategy can indeed cause a large risk reduction but a protocol will need to be developed that incorporates all the levels of the proposed beef-cold-chain, starting right from the farm to the retailer. Even with a concrete legislature to make sure this strategy works, it needs to be evaluated how far would this strategy prove to be practically enforceable. With definite legislature, a good compliance can be expected out of this strategy and apparently this strategy is far more practicable, and could prove successful. Pre-slaughter screening proposes to reduce risk by over 46%. However, more variables like feeding practices, geographical locations, and seasonal variation (that affect E. Coli fecal load) need to considered, before a definite â€Å"control† level can be instated to rule out slaughters for animals that have more than a certain level of bacterial fecal concentration. The consumer information program, although with a risk reduction of 16%, is certainly a very important level wherein proper intervention can dramatically decrease E. Coli related health morbidity. Even though anticipated risk reduction is only 16%, simple measures like adequate promotional tools, could significantly increase risk reduction through mass communication; the biggest limitation however, is that compliance in this case cannot be ascertained, nor enforceable. Keeping in mind the practical limitations of each of these strategies, a prudent approach would involve application of all the three strategies in conjunct, to ensure greater risk reduction. A good reason for this approach is that due to the uncertain nature of all the factors involved in E. Coli contamination and delivery to consuming host, it appears quite difficult to determine the individual potency of each of these factors, and they would easily remain relative values. ‘Evaluation of MRSA Select, a new chromogenic medium for the detection of nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus’ 1. What is the ‘gold standard’ used to assess the sensitivity and specificity etc. of the different diagnostic tests? The sensitivity and specificity of a particular diagnostic test needs to be estimated before the test under consideration can be employed for practical purposes, to ensure that the results obtained are accurate, and of consequence. A â€Å"gold standard†, hence, is an absolute, against which results from a particular diagnostic test are compared. The gold standard, also called as the standard frame of reference, is a perfect test for the given condition, and is 100% sensitive and specific as well. 2. Is the ‘gold standard’ the same for all of the tests? Within the context of this paper, the gold standard used is same for all the tests. The gold standard used is identification of methicillin resistant S. Aureus, from nasal swabs of patients, confirmed for the mecA gene using PCR. 3. Can the tests be compared in this way? Yes, the tests can be compared this way. The same samples (n) were subjected to different growth mediums, to ascertain the presence of MRSA. All these media were specifically designed to promote the growth of MRSA. Hence, depending on the growths shown by these different media, results can be drawn and compared. 4. Are the authors’ conclusions valid? I think that the author’s conclusions are valid. Although, PCR will remain the gold standard in ascertaining presence of MRSA, the application of this procedure, to remain practically enforceable, is quite limiting. For instance, considering the sheer number of samples that an urban community hospital has to handle on a daily basis, using PCR for all instances may not be feasible all the times. In this circumstance, using simple tissue culture techniques would definitely prove to be more desirable, especially with faster results and low costs; like using the MRSA Select that will give results within 24 hours with a sensitivity and specificity over 99%. Moreover, simplicity of the test requires no complex skill set, especially compared with handling PCR techniques. References 1. Fishman, G. S. (1995). Monte Carlo: Concepts, Algorithms, and Applications. New York: Springer 2. Bell, B. P. , Goldoft, M. , Griffin, P. M. , Davis, M. S. , Gordon, D. C. , Tarr, P. I. , Bartleson, C. A. , Lewis, J. H. , Barret, T. J. , Wells, J. G. , Baron, R. , Kobayashi, J. , (1994). A multistate outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7-associated bloody diarrhea and hemolytic uremic syndrome from hamburgers: the Washington experience. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 3. Vose, D. , (1996). Quantitative risk analysis: A guide to Monte Carlo simulation modelling. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester England. 4. USDA:APHIS:VS. , 1994a. E. coliO157:H7 issues and ramifications. Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO. 5. Gehlbach SH. (1993) Interpretation: sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value. In: Gehlbach SH, ed. Interpreting the medical literature. New York: McGraw-Hill 6. Apfalter P, Assadian O, Kalczyk A, et al. (2002) Performance of a new chromogenic oxacillin resistance screen medium (Oxoid) in the detection and presumptive identification of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis;44:209–11. 7. Murakami K, Minamide W, Wada K, Nakamura E, Teraoka, H, Watanabe S. (1991) Identification of methicillin-resistant strains of staphylococci by polymerase chain reaction. J Clin Microbiol;29:2240–4. 8. Safdar N, Narans L, Gordon B, Maki DG. (2003) Comparison of culture screening methods for detection of nasal carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a prospective study comparing 32 methods. J Clin Microbiol;41:3163–6.

My Town :: essays papers

My Town To give you a better view of "My Town," I will perch him atop the highest point of the some-kind-of-wonderful city of Hillside: The Giza pyramid-shaped pile of garbage majestically sitting in the town dump. The movie theater is to the west; a neon-pink fluorescent sign frames this week's shows: Th' Bach, Scram 3, and y' of Th' Bholdr. Teenage employees relinquish all responsibility for the missing "E"s. A makeshift lemonade stand is set up a block away. Sometimes, its determined entrepreneurs, the set of five-year-old twins, Brooke and Blake Simone like to mix their drink of choice with "extra flavoring," such as leaves, rocks, and the occasionally, yet classic family of ants. Needless to say, the single dime in their yellow Teletubbie cash box has not multiplied since their first day of business. The strip mall to the north has been replaced by Car Max, the automobile superstore. Unfortunately, the abundance of cars has not, in fact, improved anyone's driving skills, or lack of them. Further west is Proviso West High School; the peeling, forest-green painted fence that protects the school grounds failed to prevent kleptomaniacs from stealing seven car stereos from the parking lot last December. The football field behind the school patiently waits with its freshly mowed green splendor for the team of big, burly boys (and one girl) to actually win a game. At 5:30 AM, a shivering Student Council vice-president with the intent to do extra work trudges the perimeter of the edifice, praying for an open door to a building that doesn't like to be occupied outside of the normal school hours. Psychologically, two opposing beliefs surface for why I dream of dancing sugarplums and college diplomas rather than a pin on my Dairy Queen hat that reads "Employee of the Month." A child is either influenced by his surroundings and peers or repelled into the opposite direction. As a magnet gone a rye, I am thankful that Hillside has not influenced me to blend in with the crowd; neither the cemetery across the street from school nor the various monument and flower shops entice me to- pardon my morbidity- just drop dead. The strategically located bowling alley down the block does not tempt me to ditch school. Certainly, the smell of the garbage dump has turned me off to the wide-eyed world of garbage disposal and handicapped my nose, thus threatening me into giving a hoot.

Electrical gadget

Want to make your computer experience a little†¦ Bulgier? For sure you want to watch your favorite movie in a big screen because it easy to watch, and give you a lot of satisfaction. II. When I want to decide to watch TV using computer a few years ago, I really have no idea how to connect the cable. Then, at that time my friend shows me easy steps on how to do it. Ill. I have learned about the steps during that time and I did additional research for this speech. IV.Today I will inform you three main steps f how to using television as a computer monitor which are consist consideration about condition of TV and computer, connections between them and changing computer settings. (Transitions: Let's start by looking for what are the considerations) Body l. The first step Is to take considerations about the condition of television and computer In order to get the best result after changing it. A. Keep the television at the right height for computer use 1. It is best to keep the televi sion at a height where your eye level is roughly % of the way up the screen, much like with a monitor.B. Make sure your television has good resolution 1. When your computer sends the image to the television, it's going to be designed for a much smaller screen. 2. Even with a high resolution TV, some text may appear blurry. 3. With a lower resolution television, you may have a very difficult time reading text C. Find your computers output options 1. Look at the back of your computer and identify the output options. 2. These are sometimes labeled, but they may be easier to identify by looking at images of the outputs online D. Find your television's input options.

Online Journalism A New Wave Essay - 2132 Words

AMITY UNIVERSITY UTTAR PRADESH AMITY SCHOOL OF COMMUNICATION Cyber Media- Assignment Online Journalism: A New Wave Submitted By: Anubhuti Gupta Course: BJ MC Batch: 2012-2015 Enrolment No.: A2028712062 Introduction News-casting has been moderate to create different structures in reaction to the new settings gave by the web. One quickly creating structure, remarkable to the around the world web, is the weblog. This article audits the cases made by advocates of the structure and investigates, through the case investigation of a weblog delivered by the British Guardian daily paper, epistemological contrasts to the predominant Old English American news structure. The article contends that the rearticulating in this institutional result of the connection in the middle of columnists and clients, of the case to power made in the news content and of the news message as item, gives history specialists of both reporting and new media with a careful investigation of the adjustment of reporting to new connections. The rise of computerized local media outlets and proceeded with development in online feature has not yet definitely changed the substance of the U.S. news media. About one third of U.S. grown-ups, including about 50% of individuals matured 18-49, watch online news feature, as indicated by the 2014 State of the News Media study from the Pew Research Center. 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